The study of interest rate models and term structure analysis is central to understanding financial markets, underpinning the valuation of fixed income securities, derivatives, and risk management ...

Discover how biased expectations theory impacts interest rates by incorporating investor preferences and risks, beyond just ...

Empirical monetary policy shocks (EMPS) contain information about monetary policy both today and in the future. We define the term structure of monetary policy news as the marginal impact of an EMPS ...

The Fed’s dot plot is a chart that records each Fed official’s projection for the central bank’s key short-term interest rate. The dot plot is updated every three months and is meant to provide ...

Despite the Fed’s rate-cut campaign, medium- and longer-term interest rates in the US have risen sharply in recent months. This has weighed heavily on bond investors’ returns (as higher bond yields ...